Bracketology 2017: January 23

Seed List

1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
2: UCLA, Gonzaga, Florida St., North Carolina
3: Oregon, Arizona, Duke, Wisconsin
4: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia
5: Purdue, Creighton, Butler, Cincinnati
6: Maryland, South Carolina, Saint Mary's, Northwestern
7: Kansas St, Dayton, Florida, SMU
8: Xavier, Indiana, Arkansas, Minnesota
9: Iowa State, USC, Utah, Virginia Tech
10: Miami, TCU, Texas Tech, Marquette
11: Clemson, Seton Hall, Michigan, California, Rhode Island, Wake Forest
12: Akron, UNC Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Illinois State
13: Valparaiso, Nevada, Chattanooga, Monmouth
14: Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast, Princeton, New Mexico State
15: Georgia Southern, Belmont, Winthrop, Bucknell
16: North Dakota State, Texas Southern, Weber State, Sam Houston State

Bullets:

  • It's a two team race for the #1 overall seed at this point, but it still goes to Villanova, who sits on top of the Big East rather clearly at this point.
  • I did punish Creighton for Maurice Watson's injury, because I think the committee will do so.  The Jays are now a 5 seed.
  • Housekeeping:
    • Teams are selected and seeded based on an "If the season ended today" scenario.  This is not a projection of where I think they will end up, but where think they'd be based on season-to-date showings.  I expect Gonzaga to fall as their strength of schedule weakens, while Michigan St. should rise as they get healthy and win games in the B1G.  Doing it this way lets us track a team's stock as the season progresses.
    • Automatic bids are awarded to the team KenPom projects to win the regular season.  We'll keep it that way though January, before flipping over to the teams in first place in the conference standings.
  • The bubble remains very, very fluid.  In the end, I took Texas Tech, Miami, Clemson, Seton Hall, Michigan, Rhode Island, Cal and Wake Forest over (in no order) VCU, Pitt, Houston, Michigan State, Wichita State, Illinois and NC State.

Bids By Conference:
Atlantic Coast Conference 11
Big 12 Conference 7
Big Ten Conference 6
Big East Conference 6
Pac-12 Conference 6
Southeastern Conference 4
American Athletic Conference 2
Atlantic 10 Conference 2
West Coast Conference 2
America East Conference 1
Atlantic Sun Conference 1
Big Sky Conference 1
Big South Conference 1
Big West Conference 0
Colonial Athletic Association 1
Conference USA 1
Horizon League 1
Ivy League 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference 1
Mid-American Conference 1
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 1
Missouri Valley Conference 1
Mountain West Conference 1
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 1
Patriot League 1
Southern Conference 1
Southland Conference 1
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1
Sun Belt Conference 1
Summit League 1
Western Athletic Conference 1


Bracketology 2017: January 16

Seed List
1: Villanova, Kansas, UCLA, Gonzaga
2: Kentucky, Baylor, North Carolina, West Virginia
3: Florida State, Creighton, Louisville, Oregon
4: Duke, Butler, Purdue, Wisconsin,
5: Notre Dame, Arizona, Virginia, Cincinnati
6: South Carolina, Saint Mary's, Florida, Maryland
7: Dayton, Minnesota, Northwestern, Xavier
8: USC, Arkansas, Indiana, Seton Hall
9: SMU, TCU, Utah, Iowa State
10: California, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
11: Clemson, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, Marquette, Michigan State, UNC Wilmington
12: Nevada, Chattanooga, Illinois State, Middle Tennessee
13: Princeton, Vermont, Oakland, Lehigh
14: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico State, Akron, Monmouth
15: Belmont, Georgia Southern, Weber State, UNC Asheville
16: North Carolina Central, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's, Sam Houston State, Texas Southern
 
Bullets
  • Teams are selected and seeded based on an "If the season ended today" scenario.  This is not a projection of where I think they will end up, but where think they'd be based on season-to-date showings.  I expect Gonzaga to fall as their strength of schedule weakens, while Michigan St. should rise as they get healthy and win games in the B1G.  Doing it this way lets us track a team's stock as the season progresses.
  • Automatic bids are awarded to the team KenPom projects to win the regular season.  We'll keep it that way though January, before flipping over to the teams in first place in the conference standings.
  • Villanova takes the #1 overall seed back after Baylor was embarrassed last week at West Virginia.  The Bears fall off the top line all together and are now a 2-seed.
  • The bubble remains a mess.  In the end, I took Texas Tech, Miami, Marquette, Michigan State, Marquette, Kansas State and Pitt over Michigan, Oklahoma St., Rhode Island, Houston and Wichita State.
Conferences with multiple bids
10: ACC
7: Big 12, Big Ten
6: Pac-12, Big East
4:  SEC
2: American, WCC
 
In/Out This Bracket:
In: Marquette, Michigan State, Illinois State, Georgia Southern, Nevada, Akron, Lehigh, Sam Houston State, Mount Saint Mary's
Out: Michigan, VCU, UT Arlington, Boise State, Ohio, Bucknell, New Orleans, LIU Brooklyn, Wichita State

TheBracketBlog Mid-Season Awards

Most Outstanding Player – Josh Hart, Villanova
Hart returned to college with the goal of helping his NBA stock and defending their national championship – and he’s absolutely delivered this far.  Hart is the lifeblood of the nation’s best team, paying 84% of his teams minutes while shooting 65% from 2 and 38% from 3.  His 37 point performance against Notre Dame in Newark included a 14-14 FT performance to go along with 11 rebounds.  Take him off Villanova and they quickly fall into the mix with the rest of the Big East.
Most Outstanding Coach – Leonard Hamilton, Florida State
Florida State was long labeled as a team that played suffocating defense while offensive talent went to waste and the team would fight for tournament bids on a yearly basis.  There was a large contingent of Florida State fans last season who were calling for Hamilton’s job after he failed to make the tournament with hyped freshmen Dwayne Bacon and Malik Beasly joining the team.  This year’s team has not wasted an ounce of talent.  With Beasly off to the pros, Hamilton has balanced a star freshman Jonahthan Isaac with the experience of Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes with a slew of role players to find a winning formula.
Speaking of role players, that’s been where Hamilton has really done an amazing job this season.  The Seminoles go an incredible 12 players deep, wearing teams with shorter benches down and routinely taking control of games in the last 10 minutes.  All the sudden, pundits are calling the Seminoles Final Four contenders.  Not to bad for a team without a player with NCAA tournament experience.
Mid-Season All-American Team
G: Josh Hart, Villanova
G: Malik Monk, Kentucky
F: Lonzo Ball, UCLA
F: Johnathan Motley, Baylor
C: Jock Landale, Saint Mary’s
Most Surprising Team – Baylor
Baylor was barley on anybody’s radar before they knocked off Oregon at home in the season opening week.  After they completed a monster comeback to beat Louisville for the Battle 4 Atlantis title Thanksgiving weekend, everyone noticed.  They climbed all the way to #1 in all the major rankings, which was inevitably met with a quick demise as West Virginia ran them out of the gym last night.  They’re still contenders in the Big 12 and major players for a 1-seed – a far cry from the 8/9 season they were thought to be pre-season.
Most Disappointing Team – Michigan State
Injuries have definitely beset Tom Izzo’s team, but their struggles seem to far surpass that.  Losses to Northeastern and Penn State, along with a narrow escape at home to Florida Gulf Coast has left the Spartans on the outside of the field looking in currently.  They have plenty of opportunities to play themselves back in, but they need to get with it before they continue to dig their hole any deeper than it already it.

Bracketology 2017: January 10, 2017

Seed List
1: Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, UCLA
2: Kentucky, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Duke
3: Oregon, Florida St., North Carolina, Louisville
4: Butler, Purdue, Wisconsin, Creighton
5: Notre Dame, Arizona, Flroida, Virginia
6: Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, Xavier
7: Maryland, South Carolina, Dayton, Minnesota
8: Seton Hall, USC, Indiana, Arkansas
9: Northwestern, Clemson, SMU, Iowa St.
10: Texas Tech, Miami FL, Pittsburgh, Kansas St.
11: Wichita St., TCU, Michigan/Utah, California, VCU
12: UNC Wilmington, Chattanooga, Oakland, Middle Tennessee
13: UT Arlington, Boise St., Vermont, Florida Gulf Coast
14: New Mexico St., Monmouth, Belmont, Bucknell
15: Ohio, UNC Ashville, Weber St., New Orleans
16: North Dakota St., Princeton, LIU Brooklyn/North Carolina Central, UC Irvine/Texas Southern
 
Bullets
  • Teams are selected and seeded based on an "If the season ended today" scenario.  This is not a projection of where I think they will end up, but where think they'd be based on season-to-date showings.  I expect Gonzaga to fall as their strength of schedule weakens, while Michigan St. should rise as they get healthy and win games in the B1G.  Doing it this way lets us track a team's stock as the season progresses.
  • Automatic bids are awarded to the team KenPom projects to win the regular season.  We'll keep it that way though January, before flipping over to the teams in first place in the conference standings.
  • With Villanova's first loss since last year's tournament began, Baylor takes over the #1 overall seed.  Only the Bears and Gonzaga remain undefeated. 
  • It was a bad week for bubble teams, with a ton losing leaving us with a pretty unimpressive pool at the end.  I wound up taking Texas Tech, Miami, TCU, Michigan, Cal, VCU and Utah over team like Oklahoma St., Rhode Island, Marquette, Houston and Michigan St.
Conferences with multiple bids
10: ACC
7: Big 12, Big Ten
6: Pac-12
5: Big East
4:  SEC
2: American, WCC, A10

Bracketology 2017: January 4, 2017

Seed List
1: Villanova, Baylor, UCLA, Kansas
2: Gonzaga, Louisville, Kentucky, Virginia
3: West Virginia, Florida St., Wisconsin, Creighton
4: North Carolina, Xavier, Butler, Duke
5: Oregon, Florida, Virginia Tech, Arizona
6: Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Purdue
7: USC, Indiana, Minnesota, Clemson
8: Northwestern, Maryland, Kansas St., Arkansas
9: SMU, Miami (FL), Iowa St., South Carolina
10: Wichita St., UT Arlington, Oklahoma St., Michigan
11: Dayton, Seton Hall, Pitt, Michigan St., Texas Tech
12: Marquette, TCU, UNC Wilmington, Middle Tennessee, Florida Gulf Coast
13: Oakland, New Mexico St., Vermont, Boise St.,
14: Bucknell, Belmont, Samford, Akron
15: Princeton, North Dakota St., Canisius, UC Irvine
16: Houston Baptist, Weber St., North Carolina Central, Mount St., Mary's, Texas Southern, Liberty
 
Bullets
  • Teams are selected and seeded based on an "If the season ended today" scenario.  This is not a projection of where I think they will end up, but where think they'd be based on season-to-date showings.  I expect Gonzaga to fall as their strength of schedule weakens, while Michigan St. should rise as they get healthy and win games in the B1G.  Doing it this way lets us track a team's stock as the season progresses.
  • Automatic bids are awarded to the team KenPom projects to win the regular season.  We'll keep it that way though January, before flipping over to the teams in first place in the conference standings.
  • Villanova is pretty clear cut right now as the #1 overall seed coming off their road win over Creighton.
  • In the end, I selected Michigan St. (2-0 in B1G play following an awful start), TCU (a lot of wins, but none against quality opponents), Marquette (a mixed bag so far) and Texas Tech (huge win over West Virginia last night) over Houston, Providence, Rhode Island, Georgia, Wake Forest and Texas A&M.
  • I kept UCLA as the #3 overall seed despite their loss to Oregon.  Had they won in Eugene, they could have easily been in contention for the top overall spot.
Conferences with multiple bids
10: ACC
9: Big Ten
8: Big 12
5: Big East
4: Pac-12, SEC
2: American, WCC

Bracketology 2017: December 5, 2016

With most teams having a sample size of 6-9 games in the books, early December offers us our first chance to reset the field of 68.  Here are some thoughts on this field of 68:

  • I use a "if the season ended today" approach to picking my at-large teams and seeding the field.  Automatic berths are largely taken from who KenPom projects to win the field, with only one exception (I took Bucknell over Lehigh in the Patriot).
  • On the bubble, I choose Dayton, Michigan St, VCU, Providence, SMU and Pitt over Miami, Marquette, Seton Hall and Minnesota.  Strength of schedule was a big factor for whether you are in or out and this point.  Most of the teams out haven't had many quality wins to date. 
  • Speaking of Michigan St, the Spartans almost didn't make the field at only one game over .500 after a gauntlet in November.  I fully expect them to steadily climb as the season wears on and their freshman grow.
  • UCLA's win over Kentucky catapults them all the way up to 1-seed.  They are clearly the class of the Pac-12 right now - and their biggest threat may be cross town rival USC in a bit of a surprise.
  • Indiana has the two best wins of the season, but that loss at Fort Wayne weighs their stock down.  I have the Hoosiers as a high three seed.
  • Baylor and Gonzaga just keep winning and take up two other spots on the top-line, along with #1-overall seed Villanova.  I've had the Wildcats atop my rankings for a couple weeks now.
  • San Diego St's loss to Loyola (IL) has taken them out of the at-large discussion.  With only three opponents left in the KenPom Top 100, they may have to win the MWC to have a shot at the field.
  • Michigan seems safe for now at a 9-seed, but it's a big week for them with Texas and UCLA coming to Ann Arbor coming off a 2-2 stint.
  • Kansas St and Wichita St swapped 9/10 seeds to help avoid a Big 12 rematch in the opening weekend in their pods.

Seed list

  1. Villanova, Baylor, Gonzaga, UCLA
  2. Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky
  3. Virginia, Indiana, Butler, Louisville
  4. Saint Mary's, Xavier, West Virginia, Creighton
  5. Wisconsin, Florida, Cincinnati, South Carolina
  6. USC, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Arizona
  7. Florida St, Oregon, Purdue Syracuse
  8. Clemson, Ohio St, Maryland, Oklahoma St
  9. Iowa St, Wichita St, TCU, Michigan
  10. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kansas St, Northwestern
  11. Dayton, Michigan St, VCU, Providence, Fort Wayne
  12. Florida Gulf Coast, San Diego St, Valparaiso, SMU, Pitt
  13. Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, UNC Wilmington, Winthrop
  14. Vermont, Chattanooga, Monmouth, Eastern Michigan
  15. Princeton, Belmont, Bucknell, Cal St Bakersfield
  16. UC Irvine, North Dakota, Stephen F Austin, Wagner, Texas Southern, NC Central

Bids by conference:

Atlantic Coast Conference 10
Big 12 Conference 8
Big Ten Conference 8
Big East Conference 5
Pac-12 Conference 4
Southeastern Conference 4
American Athletic Conference 2
Atlantic 10 Conference 2
West Coast Conference 2
America East Conference 1
Atlantic Sun Conference 1
Big Sky Conference 1
Big South Conference 1
Big West Conference 1
Colonial Athletic Association 1
Conference USA 1
Horizon League 1
Ivy League 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference 1
Mid-American Conference 1
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference 1
Missouri Valley Conference 1
Mountain West Conference 1
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 1
Patriot League 1
Southern Conference 1
Southland Conference 1
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1
Sun Belt Conference 1
Summit League 1
Western Athletic Conference 1

Bracketology 2017: The Presason Bracket

Bracket-2016-11-11

(Analysis to come)

Seeds
1: Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova
2: Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon
3: Arizona, Louisville, Xavier, Purdue
4: UCLA, Michigan St, Gonzaga, Indiana
5: Saint Mary’s, West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut
6: Rhode Island, Butler, Cincinnati, Creighton
7: Iowa St, Wichita St, California, Baylor
8: Miami FL, Texas, Florida, Texas A&M
9: Michigan, Dayton, NC State, VCU
10: Maryland, Florida St, San Diego St, Oklahoma
11: Seton Hall, Princeton, Ohio St, SMU/Colorado
12: Monmouth, Valparaiso, UNC Wilimgton, Georgetown/Virginia Tech
13: UT Arlington, Long Beach St, Vermont, Chattanooga
14: New Mexico St, Lehigh, Winthrop, UAB
15: Stephen F. Austin, Weber St, Ohio St, Belmont
16: Texas Southern/Howard, Siena/Wagner, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota St

By Conference
ACC: 10
Big 12: 6
SEC: 3
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 5
Big Ten: 7
West Coast: 2
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
MVC: 1
Mountain West: 1
Ivy: 1
Colonial: 1
Horizon: 1
Metro Atlantic: 1
Sun Belt: 1
Big West: 1
America East: 1
Southern: 1
Conference USA: 1
Big South: 1
Patriot: 1
WAC: 1
Southland: 1
MAC: 1
Big Sky: 1
Ohio Valley: 1
Summit: 1
Atlantic Sun: 1
SWAC: 1
MEAC: 1

NEC: 1