Bracketology 2017: Final Bracket Prediction

Final bracket, posted 4:20 ET on Sunday, March 12.

Final Seed List

1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2: North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, Baylor
3: Oregon, Louisville, UCLA, Florida St.
4: Butler, Notre Dame, Florida, Iowa St.
5: West Virginia, SMU, Purdue, Wisconsin
6: Cincinnati, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia
7: Creighton, Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech
8: Arkansas, Maryland, Saint Mary's, Miami FL
9: South Carolina, Dayton, VCU, Seton Hall
10: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Wichita St., Rhode Island
11: Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Michigan St., Providence, Kansas St.
12: Wake Forest, USC, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: Princeton, East Tennessee St., Winthrop, Bucknell
14: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, New Mexico St., Kent St.
15: Northern Kentucky, North Dakota, Texas Southern, South Dakota St.
16: Jacksonville St., UC Davis, New Orleans, Troy, North Carolina Central, Mount St. Mary's

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Marquette Kansas St. Syracuse
Vanderbilt Providence Illinois St.
Xavier Wake Forest California
Michigan St. USC TCU

 

The one final one seed was a very close call.  In the end, I took Duke over UNC.  The Committee's previewed showed us they care a lot more about who you beat than who you lose to.  The Devils have 8 RPI Top 25 wins, 2 more than anyone else.  I think the committee will reward them while keeping in mind much of their losses came with injuries, suspensions and a rehabbing coach.

Rhode Island winning the A10 killed the bubble drama a bit.  I think USC is clearly in over Syracuse, leaving a noticeable drop from the Trojans to the next four out.  The Rams jumped to a 10 seed with the win.

I list Michigan and SMU as the auto-bids for the late tips, though that's mostly because they're both winning at the time the bracket is finished.  I don't think they're seeds will change regardless because of the late tips.

In the end, bids by conference breaks down as below.  The ACC end up with 8 teams in, just one ahead of the Big Ten and Big 12's 7.  The Pac-12 has 4, with three final four contenders and another (USC) headed for Dayton.  The A10 got three bids, while Illinois State will get shut out leaving the Missouri Valley with just conference champ Wichita St.

Atlantic Coast Conference: 8
Big 12 Conference: 7
Big Ten Conference: 7
Big East Conference: 7
Pac-12 Conference: 4
Southeastern Conference: 5
American Athletic Conference: 2
Atlantic 10 Conference: 3
West Coast Conference: 2
America East Conference: 1
Atlantic Sun Conference: 1
Big Sky Conference: 1
Big South Conference: 1
Big West Conference: 1
Colonial Athletic Association: 1
Conference USA: 1
Horizon League: 1
Ivy League: 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: 1
Mid-American Conference: 1
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: 1
Missouri Valley Conference: 1
Mountain West Conference: 1
Northeast Conference: 1
Ohio Valley Conference: 1
Patriot League: 1
Southern Conference: 1
Southland Conference: 1
Southwestern Athletic Conference: 1
Sun Belt Conference: 1
Summit League: 1
Western Athletic Conference: 1


Bracketology 2017: March 11

Behold - out next to lat bracket.  The Final Bracket Prediction will be posted tomorrow afternoon right about at the conclusion of the Big Ten Championship Game

True Seed List

1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke
3: Baylor, Louisville, UCLA, Florida St.
4: Butler, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida
5: SMU, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa St.
6: Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia, Northwestern
7: Creighton, Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, Michigan
8: Maryland, Seton Hall, VCU, Miami Fl
9: Saint Mary's, Arkansas, South Carolina, Dayton
10: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Wichita St., Xavier
11: Middle Tennessee, Michigan St., Kansas St., Providence, Wake Forest
12: USC, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, East Tennessee St.
14: Winthrop, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona
15: Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota, New Orleans
16: Texas Southern, South Dakota St., Jacksonville St., North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's

In this bracket: None

Out this bracket: None

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Vanerbilt Providence Syracuse
Xavier Wake Forest Illinois St.
Michigan St. USC California
Kansas St. Rhode Island TCU

The last weekend shake-up is in full swing.  I think our top 4 seeds are locked in, though Oregon could definitely make a run at the final one seed with a win over Arizona.

On the bubble, I continue to take Rhode Island over Syraucse.  The RPI rankings aren't even close between the two.  

The Big Ten's only hope to get a a top-4 seed is Minnesota, who play's Michigan in the semifinal today.

The bubble has definitely shrunk.  I feel confident that every team I have in not named Rhode Island is safe.  I think it's a toss up right now between Rhode Island and Syracuse - of which RPI favors the Rams.

Next Bracket: Tomorrow, March 12 by 5:15pm


Bracketology 2017: March 10

The next Sunday is Selection Sunday! We'll post daily brackets from here on out...

True Seed List

1: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Kentucky, UCLA, Baylor
3: Louisville, Duke, Arizona, Florida St.
4: Butler, Florida, West Virginia, Purdue
5: Notre Dame, SMU, Cincinnati, Iowa St.
6: Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Miami FL
7: Maryland, Creighton, Northwestern, Oklahoma St.
8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, VCU
9: South Carolina, Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Michigan
10: Marquette, Wichita St., Xavier, Michigan St.
11: Middle Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kansas St., Providence, USC
12: Wake Forest, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, East Tennessee St.
14: Winthrop, BUCKNELL, Florida Gulf Coast, Siena
15: Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota, New Orleans
16: Texas Southern, South Dakota St., JACKSONVILLE ST., North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's

In this bracket: Kansas St.

Out this bracket: Syracuse

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Xavier Providence Syracuse
Michigan St. USC Illinois St.
Vanderbilt Wake Forest California
Kansas St. Rhode Island TCU

A lot more shakeup yesterday as the major college tournaments got in full swing.  The most action took place at the Big 12 tourney, where K-State played their way in with a must-win victory over Baylor and TCU is back in the conversation after beating Kansas.  The Horned Frogs still need help to make the cut.

Syracuse slips just out and should be rooting hard for Rhode Island to lose in the A10 tournament to someone not named VCU or Dayton.  Wake Forest falls to the last 4 in, mostly because other teams passed them yesterday with strong wins. Xavier is now pretty safe after beating Butler.

Next Bracket: Tomorrow, March 11.


Bracketology 2017: March 9

The next Sunday is Selection Sunday! We'll post daily brackets from here on out...

True Seed List

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
4: Florida St., Florida, West Virginia, Purdue
5: Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU, Cincinnati
6: Iowa St., Minnesota, Wisconsin, Miami FL
7: Oklahoma St., Maryland, Northwestern, Creighton
8: Dayton, Virginia Tech, VCU, Marquette
9: Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Wichita St.
10: South Carolina, Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Michigan St.
11: Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier, USC, Wake Forest
12: Syracuse, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, East Tennessee St.
14: Winthrop, BUCKNELL, Florida Gulf Coast, Siena
15: Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota, New Orleans
16: Texas Southern, South Dakota St., JACKSONVILLE ST., North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mt. Saint Mary's

In this bracket: South Dakota St

Out this bracket: Nebraska Omaha

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Michigan St. Wake Forest Kansas St.
Providence USC Iowa
Vanderbilt Syracuse Illinois St.
Xavier Rhode Island California

 

I was badly under the weather yesterday, so the quest for daily brackets this week took a brief hiatus.  It would've been a slow day anyway, as all the magic happens in the next couple days as bubble teams play themselves in and out.

Speaking of which, Syracuse is in major trouble.  The Orange lost to Miami yesterday and fell to my next-to-last-team-in.  Here's the problem: Everyone else around them in that bubble picture (sans Illinois St.) is still playing.  There are going to be a lot of opportunities for other teams to pass them, or the bubble to shrink if/when someone steals a bubble bid with a conference tournament run. 

I dropped Saint Mary's to the 9 seed after their third loss of the season to Gonzaga, again not in competitive fashion. Wake Forest lives in the last four in at this point after their loss to Va Tech.  They should make it, but it may get interesting depending on how things shape up.

Next Bracket: Tomorrow, March 10.


Bracketology 2017: March 7

The next Sunday is Selection Sunday! We'll post daily brackets from here on out...

True Seed List

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
4: Florida St., Florida, West Virginia, Purdue
5: Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU, Cincinnati
6: Iowa St., Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
7: Oklahoma St., Maryland, Miami FL, Saint Mary's
8: Creighton, Dayton, Virginia Tech, VCU
9: Marquette, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Wichita St.
10: South Carolina, Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Michigan St.
11: Syracuse, Providence, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Xavier
12: USC, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, East Tennessee St.
14: Winthrop, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona
15: Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota, Nebraska-Omaha
16: New Orleans, Texas Southern, JACKSONVILLE ST., North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's

In this bracket: East Tennessee St., Nebraska-Omaha, Iona
Out this bracket: UNC Greensboro, South Dakota, Saint Peter's

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Michigan St. Wake Forest Kansas St.
Syracuse USC Iowa
Providence Xavier Illinois St.
Vanderbilt Rhode Island California

 

The biggest news since yesterday was three more teams locking in their automatic bids.  East Tennessee State avenged their loss to UNC Grennsboro in the regular season finale that dropped them from a 1-seed to a 3-seed in the SoCon title game.  UNC Wilmington have been the class of the Colonial all year - they took the automatic bid there.  The MAAC gave us a classic, with Iona outlasting Siena in overtime for the crown there.

Otherwise, no real movement as Monday was full of mid-major tournaments only.  The ACC Tournament begins today.  Wake Forest needs to avoid disaster against Boston College, while Georgia Tech needs to win three to be safe - that starts today against Pit.


Bracketology 2017: March 6

The next Sunday is Selection Sunday! We'll post daily brackets from here on out...

True Seed List

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
4: Florida St., Florida, West Virginia, Purdue
5: Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU, Cincinnati
6: Iowa St., Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
7: Oklahoma St., Maryland, Miami FL, Saint Mary's
8: Creighton, Dayton, Virginia Tech, VCU
9: Marquette, Seton Hall, Arkansas, Wichita St.
10: South Carolina, Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Michigan St.
11: Syracuse, Providence, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Xavier
12: USC, Rhode Island, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron, UNC Greensboro
14: Winthrop, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Saint Peter's
15: Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota, South Dakota
16: New Orleans, Texas Southern, JACKSONVILLE ST., North Carolina Central, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's

In this bracket: Saint Peter's
Out this bracket: Monmouth

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Michigan St. Wake Forest Kansas St.
Syracuse USC Iowa
Providence Xavier Illinois St.
Vanderbilt Rhode Island California

Purdue keeps it's spot on the 4-seed line after beating Northwestern yesterday.  The Wildcats are part of a jumble of Big Ten seeds on the six and seven seed line.

Wichita State's win over Illinois State was as equally big for the Shockers as it was bad for the Redbirds.  The problem for Illinois State is that a lot of other Bubble teams have picked up quality wins as of late.  They're on the outside looking in now, and I don't see how they possibly climb back in without playing any more games.  This was a great result for bubble teams not named Illinois State.

Monmouth fell in the MAAC tournament for the second straight year to Siena in what was basically a true road game.  The Hawks have won 55 games the past two years, but have not made the tournament. 

To me, the true bubble is very small after a lot of teams have been winning.  On my list, it's Wake Forest, USC, Xavier, Rhode Island, Kansas State and Iowa fighting for four spots.  Iowa plays Michigan in the Big Ten tournament 8/9 game on Thursday.  That night K-State opens against Baylor - a win likely would get them in the field.  Rhode Island gets the double-bye in the A-10 opener.  They probably need to make it to the finals to truly feel safe.

Automatic bids clinched so far belong to Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley), Wichita State (Missouri Valley), Winthrop (Big South) and Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN).  The SoCon and Colonial championship games tip off tonight.


Bracketology 2017: March 5

Selection Sunday is only a week away!  We'll post daily brackets from here on out...

True Seed List

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky
3: UCLA, Arizona, Butler, Duke
4: Florida St., Florida, West Virginia, Purdue
5: Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU, Cincinnati
6: Minnesota, Iowa St., Maryland, Saint Mary's
7: Northwestern, Miami FL, Oklahoma St., Wisconsin
8: Creighton, Dayton, Seton Hall, VCU
9: Virginia Tech, Marquette, Arkansas, South Carolina
10: Michigan, Wichita St., Middle Tennessee, Michigan St.
11: Syracuse, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Wake Forest
12: Rhode Island, USC, UNC Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont
13: Monmouth, UT Arlington, Princeton, Akron
14: JACKSONVILLE ST., UNC Greensboro, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast
15: Bucknell, Northern Kentucky, Cal St. Bakersfield, North Dakota
16: South Dakota, New Orleans, Texas Southern , North Carolina Central

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Michigan Wake Forest Illinois St.
Syracuse USC Kansas State
Providence Xavier Iowa
Vanderbilt Rhose Island California

In this bracket: Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Jacksonville St., Northern Kentucky
Out this bracket: California, Illinois, Belmont, Oakland

No analysis today, busy at the ASUN Championship Game, yours at 3 ET on ESPN.  Next Bracket: Monday, March 6


Bracketology 2017: March 2

True Seed List 

1: Kansas, Villanova, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Oregon, Baylor, UCLA, Arizona
3: Kentucky, Louisville, Butler, Duke
4: Florida, Florida St., Purdue, West Virginia
5: Virginia, Iowa St., SMU, Notre Dame
6: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Miami FL
7: Saint Mary's, Dayton, Maryland, Creighton
8: Oklahoma St., Northwestern, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
9: VCU, Michigan, Arkansas, Michigan St.
10: Seton Hall, Marquette, Wichita St., Middle Tennessee
11: Syracuse, Providence, California, Xavier, USC
12: Illinois, Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Nevada
13: UT Arlington, Monmouth, Princeton, Belmont
14: Oakland, Akron, Winthrop, Bucknell
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield, UNC Greensboro, North Dakota
16: South Dakota, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Mount St. Mary's

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Marquette Xavier Wake Forrest
Syracuse USC Illinois St.
Providence Illinois Rhode Island
California  Vanderbilt Georgia Tech

In This Bracket: Illinois, UNC Greensboro

Out This Bracket: Illinois State, East Tennessee State

Notes

Not a ton of movement at the top.  North Carolina holds onto the final 1-seed after losing to Virginia on Monday.  The Cavs are back up to my top 5-seed.  

All three Pac-12 contenders (UCLA, Arizona, Oregon) sit on the 2-seed line, but that will likely sort itself out in Las Vegas next week.  The champion will likely be the toughest competitor to take away a 1-seed should Gonzaga or UNC falter.

There were a lot of really good wins by bubble teams last night. Xavier is in big trouble after yet another loss last night.  They're in my last four in and could easily fall out.  Same with USC.  Wake Forest's win over Louisville gets them to the first spot out of the tournament, but I they still have work to do to punch their ticket.  Vanderbilt holds onto the final at-large spot, but they absolutely need to beat Florida at home this weekend or they'll fall out.

This bubble was a lot more of a toss-up than recent brackets.  Conference tournaments should help clear things up a bid.

Lastly, the news of last night was Northwestern's win over Michigan in stunning fashion.  That does indeed lock the Wildcats in their first ever tournament.  Michigan still needs one more win or they could be sweating things out on Selection Sunday. 

Next Bracket: SUNDAY March 5. From there we'll do daily brackets through Selection Sunday.


Scoreboard Watching: February 27, 2017

Bracketology Scoreboard Watching

In The Books

Friday
Dayton 89, Davidson 82 (OT): The Flyers trailed for much of this game beore pushing it to overtime.  The win sets up a showdown with VCU on Monday that would clinch the regular season for Dayton with a win.
 
Saturday
Kentucky 76, Florida 66: Malik Monk dropped 33 as De'Aaron Fox missed the game with an ankle injury.  The result is 32-point swing from Florida's lopsided victory three weeks prior.  That loss was Kentucky's third in four games.  They haven't lost since and now sit alone in first in the SEC.
 
BYU 79, Gonzaga 71: KenPom had the Bulldogs as 99% favorites to win, but BYU was having none of it.  The Cougars pushed the pace, failing to allow Gonzaga to play a half court game and handing Mark Few's team their first loss of the season.  They likely stay as a 1-seed with the loss, but another from here on out and they'll probably fall to the 2-seed line.
 
UCLA 77, Arizona 72: A huge win for the Bruins on the road.  The fourth number one seed could be in play for Steve Alford's team if they win out (including the Pac-12 Tourney).
 
Iowa State 72, Baylor 69: The Cyclones now own wins over Baylor and Kansas (in Phog Allen).  That should get the in contention for a top-4 seed.
 
Michigan 82, Purdue 70: The Wolverines were able to disrupt Purdue's big men by constantly moving theirs on both ends of the floor, rattling them with quickness.  This was the signature win they badly needed.  A spit of their final two road games (Northwestern & Nebraska) should have them pretty comfortable going into the BTT.
 
Miami 55, Duke 50: The Hurricanes now own wins over UNC and Duke at home.  With 20 overall wins and 10 conference wins, they're now locked in the tournament.
 
Florida State 76, Clemson 74: A win is a win, but this is pretty emblematic of FSU's split of home/road struggles.  The Noles drummed Clemson by 58 on Super Bowl Sunday in Tallahassee.  Away from home?  A 2-point squeaker.  They''re at Duke on Tuesday.
 
West Virginia 61, TCU 60: Five straight losses for TCU drops the Horned Frogs to 6-10 in conference.  They likely need to win from here to the Big 12 Final to have a shot at a bubble bid now.
 
Providence 73, Marquette 69:  I was admittedly more bullish than most on the Friars, but this run of late has them back up to .500 in conference with only DePaul and St. John's remaining.  If they can get to 10 conference wins, they might be locked in before the Big East tournament even begins.  Meanwhile, Marquette falls back toward the bubble with a much more challenge finish - at Xavier and home against Creighton.
 
Indiana 63, Northwestern 62: The Wildcats aren't going to make it easy on themselves.  The loss is heir fifth in six games, dropping them to 9-7 in the Big Ten with Michigan and Purdue remaining.  If they drop those and have a quick exit in the BTT, it could be a nervous selection Sunday in Evanston.
 
Villanova 79, Creighton 63: The Wildcats clinch the outright Big East title, keeping them in sound position for a 1-seed.
 
Rhode Island 69, VCU 59: Not dead yet.  The consensus on URI was that they needed to win out after their loss to Fordham to have a chance.  Well, they've won three in a row and have cleared their biggest hurdle.  A road trip to St. Joe's and a home game with Dayton is all they have left.  Meanwhile, VCU now needs a win at Dayton just to force a tie in conference.
 
Oklahoma 81, Kansas State 51: Wow.  The Wildcats absolutely needed a win and instead fall by 30(!) to a struggling Oklahoma team.  Wins against TCU and Texas Tech could potentially keep them on life support, but they seems like a longshot after a result like this.
 
Oklahoma State 70, Texas Tech 63: Well, any hope the Red Raiders had is officially toast with their 11th conference loss.  Meanwhile, OK State has now won nine of 10 and is in very good position heading into the final week.
 
Sunday
Butler 88, Xavier 79: Great week for the Bulldogs, who could very well earn a two seed with a deep push in the Big east Tournament.
 
Michigan State 84, Wisconsin 74: That's four losses in five games for Wisconsin after the committee left them out of their Top 16 on February 11.  I have them as a six-seed now, but even that may be optimistic.  Meanwhile, Sparty improves to 10-6 in the Big Ten and would seem like only an 0-3 finish (BTT included) would put them back on the bubble.
 
UCF 53, Cincinnati 49:  Just like that and SMU has the upper-hand fro the American's regular season crown.
 
Houston 72, Memphis 71: If there American is to get three teams in, it would likely have to be one of these.  Houston could earn their way in with a road win at Cincinnati on Thursday night.
 
Louisville 88, Syracuse 68: The loss pushes the 'Cuse back toward the bubble, but they could still pick up their 10th ACC win on Saturday against Georgia Tech, which would set them up nicely going into the ACC Tournament.
 
Notre Dame 64, Georgia Tech 60: Speaking of Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets have lost three of four and are very much in trouble.  They'll need to sweep Pitt and Syracuse and then win at least one in Brooklyn to sure up a spot in the big dance.
 
Arizona State 83, USC 82: Devastating loss for USC.  The Trojans have seemed safe for awhile, but now are very much on the bubble as one of my last four in.  They need to sweep the Washington schools next weekend at home then win 1-2 in the Pac-12 Tournament to be safe.
 
Illinois 73, Nebraska 57: If the Illini can beat Michigan State on Wednesday, they're very much in the bubble conversation heading into Indianapolis.
 
Northern Kentucky 82, Valparaiso 78 & Oakland 86, Milwaukee 75: The Oakland Grizzlies steal away the regular season crown on the final day of the regular season.  Their tournament starts Friday at Joe Louis Arena in nearby Detroit. 

Tipping Off Tonight

 West Virginia at Baylor: A loss and Baylor could wind up finishing fourth in the Big 12 - a thought that was crazy just a few weeks ago.
 
North Carolina at Virginia: Can the Cavs manage more than 41 points at home against the ACC leaders?
 
Miami at Virginia Tech: A win would give Va Tech 10 conference wins and likely lock up their spot in the tournament.  Miami just closed out a nice week that included a road win over Virginia and Saturday's home win over Duke.

Bracketology 2017: February 27

True Seed List 

1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2: Oregon, Louisville, UCLA, Baylor
3: Arizona, Kentucky, Butler, Florida St.
4: Florida, West Virginia, Duke, Purdue
5: SMU, Iowa St., Notre Dame, Minnesota
6: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Saint Mary's, Virginia
7: Miami FL, Dayton, Maryland, Creighton
8: Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, South Carolina, VCU
9: Michigan, Michigan St., Arkansas, Wichita St.
10: Northwestern, Xavier, Syracuse, Providence
11: California, Seton Hall, Middle Tennessee, Marquette, USC
12: Illinois St., Vanderbilt, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Nevada
13: UT Arlington, Monmouth, Princeton, Akron
14: Belmont, Oakland, Winthrop, Bucknell
15: Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield, East Tennessee St., North Dakota
16: South Dakota, North Carolina Central, New Orleans, Texas Southern, Mt. St. Mary's, UC Irvine

Out this bracket: Georgia Tech, Valparaiso, UNC Asheville, North Dakota St.

In this bracket: Vanderbilt, Oakland, Winthrop, South Dakota

Last 4 Byes Last 4 IN First 4 OUT
Syracuse Marquette Rhode Island
Providence USC Georgia Tech
California Illinois St Wake Forest
Seton Hall Vanderbilt Illinois

Notes

Gonzaga's home loss to BYU takes them out of the running for the #1-overall seed, but they still hold firm as the #3-overall seed. If they lose, they'll drop down to a 2-seed, otherwise, they should till stay a 1.

This past week was very bad for the Big Ten's top teams.  Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin combined to go 1-5 last week, with the only win being Purdue's over Penn State in overtime.  The Boilermakers are my final 4-seed and the only one of these teams ranked above a 6-seed.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Northwestern and Illinois have crept toward the bubble.  That's good news for the Illini, not so much for the Wildcats who need at least one more win to sure up their status.

I still have Oregon above UCLA  on the S-Curve as they split the season series and the Ducks are now in position to get the top seed in the Pac-12 Tournament.  The higher of those seeds gets to open in Sacramento while the other goes to Salt Lake.  [EDIT: A math error had be think Gonzaga was closer to Sacramento than Salt Lake.  The Zags will open in Salt Lake, both Oregon and UCLA should open in Sacramento, barring something crazy.]

I by no means expected to see Vanderbilt in my field when I sat down to create the bracket.  But man, they have better wins than any of the teams out and not as bad of losses either.  They're my last team in.

Next Bracket: Thursday, March 2.  Daily brackets will start next weekend as Champ Week kicks into gear.