True Seed List
Note - a few teams had to shift a seed in the actual bracket to avoid conference match-ups. The list below is their "True Seed", meaning where they would live if not for those conflicts.
1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor
2: North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona
3: UCLA, Florida St., Duke, Florida
4: Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin, West Virginia
5: Butler, Purdue, Notre Dame, Maryland
6: Cincinnati, SMU, Creighton, Northwestern
7: Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, Iowa St., USC
8: Xavier, South Carolina, Dayton, VCU
9: Miami FL, Minnesota, Oklahoma St., Arkansas
10: California, Wichita St., Michigan, Michigan St.
11: Illinois St., Syracuse, Providence, Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, TCU
12: Middle Tennessee, Akron, Vermont, UNC Wilmington
13: Nevada, Valparaiso, Monmouth, Belmont
14: Princeton, UT Arlington, UNC Asheville, Bucknell
15: Cal St. Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, Furman, North Dakota St., Mount St. Mary's, North Carolina Central
16: Texas Southern, New Orleans, Weber St., North Carolina Central
OUT THIS BRACKET: Kansas State, Wake Forest, Boise St., New Mexico St.
IN THIS BRACKET: Providence, Seton Hall, Nevada, Cal State Bakersfield
On the bubble: While some teams have clearly played themselves in and out of the bubble, a small group still remains very fluid. In the end, I took Michigan, Michigan St., Illinois St., Syracuse, Providence, Georgia Tech, TCU and Seton Hall over Texas Tech, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Tennessee and Rhode Island. There is very much an opportunity to play your way into the field as the end of the bubble is pretty weak right now.
Baylor's loss to Texas Tech shrinks the gap between the Bears and the 2-seed line quite a bit, but not enough to bump them, yet. A loss to Kansas this weekend and a win by UNC over UVA may do it. Speaking of Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are moving in the right direction with that win, but need to reach .500 in conference, which still requires a 4-1 finish.
Duke moves up to a 3-seed after last night's win at Virginia. They're playing great basketball right now and a 2-seed is not out of the question if they stay hot.
Kansas holds strong as the #2 overall seed behind Villanova. I still have Gonzaga slotted at #3 overall based on the committee's standings released on Saturday.
Indiana isn't even in the picture anymore after falling to 5-9 in Big Ten play last night. Those wins over Kansas and UNC seem like seasons ago.
The ACC leads all conferences with 10 bids. I still expect them to only get 9 in the end. The Big Ten gets seven teams in, while the Big East and Big 12 get six apiece.
Next Bracket: Monday February 20.